KCMH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

58%

50%

48%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.8¢Risks 67.85u

ICONNO 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.15u · ICON −32.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:28+00:00	36.0%	47.8%	74.5%	55.6%	20.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:28+00:00	36.0%	47.8%	74.5%	55.6%	20.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	36.0%	47.8%	74.5%	55.6%	20.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	36.0%	47.8%	74.5%	55.6%	20.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	36.0%	47.8%	74.5%	55.6%	20.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:51+00:00	70.1%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	57.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	70.1%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	57.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	70.1%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	57.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	70.1%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	57.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	70.1%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	57.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	70.1%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	57.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	81.3%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	76.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	81.3%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	76.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	81.3%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	76.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	81.3%	45.6%	89.7%	55.5%	76.7%
2026-10-14T10:33:31+00:00	81.3%	45.6%	89.7%	53.5%	76.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:53+00:00	81.3%	44.5%	83.4%	53.5%	76.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	81.3%	44.5%	83.4%	53.5%	76.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	81.3%	44.5%	83.4%	53.5%	76.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	77.3%	44.5%	83.4%	53.5%	76.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	77.2%	44.5%	83.5%	53.5%	76.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	77.2%	47.8%	83.5%	53.5%	76.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	77.2%	47.8%	83.5%	53.5%	76.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	77.2%	47.8%	83.5%	53.5%	76.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	77.2%	47.8%	78.2%	53.5%	76.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	77.2%	47.8%	78.2%	53.5%	76.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	77.2%	47.8%	78.2%	53.5%	76.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	76.6%	47.8%	78.2%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	76.6%	47.8%	78.2%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	76.6%	47.8%	78.2%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	76.6%	47.8%	78.2%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	76.6%	47.8%	78.2%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	76.6%	47.8%	79.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	76.6%	47.8%	79.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	76.6%	47.8%	79.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	75.3%	47.8%	79.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	75.3%	47.8%	79.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	75.3%	47.8%	79.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	75.3%	47.8%	79.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	75.3%	47.8%	79.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	75.3%	47.8%	81.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	75.3%	47.8%	81.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	75.3%	47.8%	81.6%	52.1%	73.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:00	83.1%	47.8%	81.6%	46.8%	79.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	83.1%	47.8%	81.6%	46.8%	79.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	83.1%	47.8%	81.6%	46.8%	79.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	83.1%	47.8%	81.6%	46.8%	79.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00	83.1%	47.8%	81.6%	46.8%	79.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	83.1%	47.8%	84.0%	46.8%	79.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	83.1%	48.8%	84.0%	46.8%	79.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00	83.1%	48.8%	84.0%	46.8%	79.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	83.1%	48.8%	84.0%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	83.1%	48.8%	84.0%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:15+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	84.0%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	84.0%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	88.7%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	88.7%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	88.7%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	83.1%	52.4%	88.7%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	82.6%	52.4%	88.7%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	82.6%	52.4%	88.7%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	82.6%	52.4%	88.7%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	82.6%	52.4%	88.7%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	82.6%	52.4%	84.0%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	82.6%	52.4%	84.0%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	82.6%	52.4%	84.0%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	82.0%	52.4%	84.0%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	82.0%	52.4%	84.0%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	82.0%	52.4%	84.0%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	82.0%	52.4%	84.0%	55.6%	74.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	81.3%	48.2%	75.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	81.3%	48.2%	75.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	81.3%	48.2%	75.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	84.3%	48.2%	75.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	84.3%	48.2%	75.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	84.3%	48.2%	75.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	84.3%	48.2%	79.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	84.3%	48.2%	79.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	84.3%	48.2%	79.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	84.3%	48.2%	79.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	84.3%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	85.7%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	85.7%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	84.2%	55.9%	85.7%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	86.9%	55.9%	85.7%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	86.9%	55.9%	85.7%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	86.9%	55.9%	85.7%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	86.9%	55.9%	85.7%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00	86.9%	55.9%	85.7%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	86.9%	55.9%	87.0%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	86.9%	55.9%	87.0%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	86.9%	55.9%	87.0%	57.1%	79.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00	88.6%	55.9%	87.0%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	88.6%	55.9%	87.0%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	88.6%	55.9%	87.0%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	88.6%	55.9%	87.0%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	88.6%	55.9%	87.0%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	88.6%	67.1%	85.6%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	88.6%	67.1%	85.6%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	88.6%	67.1%	85.6%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	86.6%	67.1%	85.6%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	86.6%	66.8%	85.6%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:53+00:00	86.6%	66.6%	85.6%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	86.6%	66.6%	85.6%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	86.6%	66.6%	88.4%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	86.6%	66.6%	88.4%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	86.6%	66.6%	88.4%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	86.6%	66.6%	88.4%	57.7%	68.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	88.4%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	88.4%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	88.4%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	88.4%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	87.7%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	87.7%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	87.7%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	87.7%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	87.7%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	87.7%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	87.7%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	87.7%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	91.2%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	91.2%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	91.2%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	86.1%	66.6%	91.2%	53.9%	61.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	87.3%	66.6%	91.2%	55.3%	56.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	87.3%	66.6%	91.2%	55.3%	56.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	87.3%	66.6%	91.2%	55.3%	56.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	87.3%	66.6%	91.2%	55.3%	56.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	87.3%	63.3%	86.4%	55.3%	56.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	87.3%	63.3%	86.4%	55.3%	56.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	87.3%	63.3%	86.4%	55.3%	56.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	87.3%	63.3%	86.4%	55.3%	56.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	84.5%	63.1%	86.4%	55.4%	56.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	84.5%	63.1%	86.4%	55.4%	56.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	84.5%	58.3%	86.4%	55.4%	56.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	84.5%	58.3%	86.4%	55.4%	56.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	84.5%	58.3%	87.2%	55.4%	56.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	84.5%	58.3%	87.2%	55.4%	56.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	84.5%	58.3%	87.2%	55.4%	56.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	87.2%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	87.2%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	87.2%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	87.2%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	87.2%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	82.3%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	82.3%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	83.9%	58.3%	82.3%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	86.8%	58.3%	82.3%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	86.8%	58.3%	82.3%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	86.8%	58.3%	82.3%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	86.8%	58.3%	82.3%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00	86.8%	58.3%	82.3%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	86.8%	58.3%	87.9%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	86.8%	58.3%	87.9%	50.0%	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	86.8%	58.3%	87.9%	50.0%	47.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	68.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0146
AIFS Single	87%	69.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0174
National Blend	67%	66.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1076
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.1681
IFS Ensemble	58%	66.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1739
IFS HRES	50%	65.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.2500
ICON	48%	65.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.2725

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗