KCMH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

30%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 16.9¢Risks 16.85u

EPSNO 83.2¢Risks 83.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +83.15u · EPS −83.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:38+00:00	39.5%	2.9%	29.4%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	39.5%	2.9%	29.4%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	39.5%	2.9%	29.4%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	39.5%	2.9%	29.4%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:20+00:00	39.5%	0.3%	28.7%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	39.5%	0.3%	28.7%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	39.5%	0.3%	28.7%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	39.5%	0.3%	28.7%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	31.5%	0.3%	28.7%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	31.5%	0.4%	28.7%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:36+00:00	31.5%	0.4%	28.7%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	31.5%	0.4%	28.7%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	31.5%	0.4%	23.5%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	31.5%	0.4%	23.5%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	31.5%	0.4%	23.5%	12.8%	6.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	41.5%	0.4%	23.5%	12.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	41.5%	0.4%	23.5%	12.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	41.5%	0.4%	23.5%	12.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	41.5%	0.4%	23.5%	12.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	41.5%	0.4%	23.5%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	41.5%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	41.5%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	41.5%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	27.3%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	27.3%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:52+00:00	27.3%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	27.3%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	27.3%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	27.3%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	27.3%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	27.3%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	37.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	26.1%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	34.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	26.1%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	34.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	26.1%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	34.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	26.1%	0.4%	34.4%	10.9%	34.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:32+00:00	26.1%	0.4%	34.4%	10.6%	34.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:53+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	25.0%	10.6%	34.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	25.0%	10.6%	34.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	25.0%	10.6%	34.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	19.3%	0.0%	25.0%	10.6%	34.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	20.2%	0.0%	25.3%	10.6%	34.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	20.2%	0.1%	25.3%	10.6%	34.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	20.2%	0.1%	25.3%	10.6%	34.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	20.2%	0.1%	25.3%	10.6%	34.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	20.2%	0.1%	19.5%	10.6%	34.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	20.2%	0.1%	19.5%	10.6%	34.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	20.2%	0.1%	19.5%	10.6%	34.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	22.3%	0.1%	19.5%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	22.3%	0.1%	19.5%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	22.3%	0.1%	19.5%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	22.3%	0.1%	19.5%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	22.3%	0.1%	19.5%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	22.3%	0.1%	18.4%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	22.3%	0.1%	18.4%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	22.3%	0.1%	18.4%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	18.4%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	18.4%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	18.4%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	18.4%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	18.4%	7.4%	33.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	33.6%	0.1%	15.9%	6.1%	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	34%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	73.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	67.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗