KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.0¢Risks 3.00u

WN2NO 94.0¢Risks 47.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.00u · WN2 −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:54+00:00	6.0%	7.6%	5.7%	24.4%	2.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	6.0%	7.6%	5.7%	24.4%	2.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	6.0%	7.6%	5.7%	24.4%	2.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	6.0%	7.6%	5.7%	24.4%	2.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	6.0%	7.6%	5.7%	24.4%	2.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	6.0%	7.6%	3.0%	24.4%	2.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	6.0%	3.7%	3.0%	24.4%	2.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	6.0%	3.7%	3.0%	24.4%	2.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	5.4%	3.7%	3.0%	24.4%	2.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	5.5%	3.7%	3.1%	24.4%	2.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:41+00:00	5.5%	3.7%	3.1%	24.4%	2.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	5.5%	3.6%	3.1%	24.4%	2.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	5.5%	3.6%	3.1%	24.4%	2.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	5.5%	3.6%	1.7%	24.4%	2.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	5.5%	3.6%	1.7%	24.4%	2.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	5.5%	3.6%	1.7%	24.4%	2.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	3.8%	3.6%	1.7%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	3.8%	3.6%	1.7%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	3.8%	3.6%	1.7%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	3.8%	3.6%	1.7%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	3.8%	3.6%	2.4%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	3.8%	3.6%	2.4%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	3.8%	3.6%	2.4%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	3.8%	3.6%	2.4%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	3.2%	3.6%	2.4%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	3.2%	3.6%	2.4%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	3.2%	3.6%	2.4%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	3.2%	3.6%	2.4%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	3.2%	3.6%	2.4%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	3.2%	3.6%	2.7%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	3.2%	3.6%	2.7%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	3.2%	3.6%	2.7%	17.2%	35.4%
2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00	2.7%	3.6%	2.7%	15.7%	33.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	2.7%	3.6%	2.7%	15.7%	33.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	2.7%	3.6%	2.7%	15.7%	33.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	2.7%	3.6%	2.7%	15.7%	33.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	2.7%	3.6%	2.7%	15.7%	33.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	2.7%	1.9%	0.8%	15.7%	33.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	2.7%	1.9%	0.8%	15.7%	33.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	2.7%	1.9%	0.8%	15.7%	33.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	3.2%	1.9%	0.8%	15.7%	33.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	3.2%	1.9%	0.8%	15.7%	33.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	3.2%	2.0%	0.8%	15.7%	33.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	3.2%	2.0%	0.8%	15.7%	33.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	3.2%	2.0%	0.7%	15.7%	33.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	3.2%	2.0%	0.7%	15.7%	33.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	3.2%	2.0%	0.7%	15.7%	33.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	3.2%	2.0%	0.7%	15.7%	33.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	0.7%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	0.7%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	0.7%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	0.7%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	7.1%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	7.1%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	7.1%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:38+00:00	7.1%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	7.1%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	7.1%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	7.1%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	7.1%	2.0%	1.0%	27.6%	13.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	0.1%	9.4%	13.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	0.1%	9.4%	13.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	0.1%	9.4%	13.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	0.1%	9.4%	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	0.1%	9.4%	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	0.1%	9.4%	13.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	1.3%	3.4%	0.1%	7.8%	13.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	1.3%	3.4%	0.1%	7.8%	13.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	1.3%	3.4%	0.1%	7.8%	13.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	0.6%	3.4%	0.1%	8.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	0.6%	3.4%	0.1%	8.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	0.6%	3.4%	0.1%	8.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	0.6%	3.4%	0.1%	8.4%	11.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	0.6%	3.4%	0.1%	8.4%	11.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	22%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	12%	72.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	71.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	69.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	67.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗