KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.6¢Risks 4.30u

WN2NO 91.4¢Risks 45.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.70u · WN2 −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:54+00:00	0.3%	20.3%	0.6%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	0.3%	20.3%	0.6%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	0.3%	20.3%	0.6%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	0.3%	20.3%	0.6%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	0.3%	20.3%	0.6%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	0.3%	14.8%	0.1%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	0.3%	14.8%	0.1%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	0.3%	14.8%	0.1%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	0.5%	14.8%	0.1%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	0.5%	14.8%	0.1%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:47+00:00	0.5%	14.8%	0.1%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	0.5%	14.8%	0.1%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	0.5%	14.8%	0.4%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	0.5%	14.8%	0.4%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	0.5%	14.8%	0.4%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	0.5%	14.8%	0.4%	30.7%	4.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	0.8%	14.8%	0.4%	30.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	0.8%	14.8%	0.4%	30.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	0.8%	14.8%	0.4%	30.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	0.8%	14.8%	0.4%	30.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	0.8%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	0.8%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	0.8%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	1.2%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	1.2%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	1.2%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:35+00:00	1.2%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	1.2%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	1.2%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	1.2%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	1.2%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	48.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	2.1%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	5.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	2.1%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	5.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	2.1%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	5.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	2.1%	14.8%	0.6%	19.7%	5.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:54+00:00	2.1%	14.8%	0.6%	15.0%	5.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	2.1%	1.5%	0.2%	15.0%	5.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	2.1%	1.5%	0.2%	15.0%	5.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	2.1%	1.5%	0.2%	15.0%	5.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	2.6%	1.5%	0.2%	15.0%	5.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	2.9%	1.5%	0.2%	15.1%	5.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:33+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	0.2%	15.1%	5.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	0.2%	15.1%	5.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	0.2%	15.1%	5.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	0.3%	15.1%	5.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	0.3%	15.1%	5.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	2.9%	1.7%	0.3%	15.1%	5.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	1.2%	1.7%	0.3%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	1.2%	1.7%	0.3%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	1.2%	1.7%	0.3%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	1.2%	1.7%	0.3%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	1.2%	1.7%	0.3%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	1.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	1.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	1.2%	1.7%	0.2%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:58+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	0.4%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	0.4%	8.8%	16.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	0.4%	8.8%	16.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	17%	82.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	80.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	82.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	77.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	77.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Dallas · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗