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KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
58%
WN2
57%
ICON
41%
HRES
23%
EPS
23%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u
VS
EPSNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +59.40u · EPS −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS HRES: 23.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00ICON: 38.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00ICON: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:0064.3%30.9%66.7%45.7%38.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:0064.3%30.9%69.5%45.7%38.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0064.3%30.9%69.5%45.7%38.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:0064.3%30.9%69.5%45.7%38.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:0069.8%30.9%69.5%23.4%40.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0069.8%30.9%69.5%23.4%40.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:0069.8%30.9%69.5%23.4%40.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0069.8%30.9%69.5%23.4%40.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0069.8%30.9%69.5%23.4%40.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:0069.8%23.0%56.8%23.4%40.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:0069.8%23.0%56.8%23.4%40.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:0069.8%23.0%56.8%23.4%40.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:0058.1%23.0%56.8%23.7%40.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0058.1%23.1%56.8%23.4%40.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single58%68.6°F5.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 257%68.3°F4.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend56%68.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%68.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
ICON41%65.8°F7.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES23%62.7°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble23%64.9°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗