KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

48%

46%

33%

30%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

EPSNO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.00u · EPS −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:42+00:00	50.0%	31.6%	50.0%	29.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	50.0%	31.6%	50.0%	29.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	50.0%	31.6%	50.0%	29.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	50.0%	31.6%	50.0%	29.9%	11.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	50.0%	31.6%	50.0%	29.9%	11.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	44.9%	20.1%	54.3%	22.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	44.9%	20.1%	60.1%	22.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	44.9%	20.1%	60.1%	22.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	44.9%	20.1%	60.1%	22.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00	49.2%	20.1%	60.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	49.2%	20.1%	60.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	49.2%	20.1%	60.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	49.2%	20.1%	60.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	49.2%	20.1%	60.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00	49.2%	21.2%	65.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	49.2%	21.2%	65.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	49.2%	21.2%	65.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	42.8%	21.2%	65.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	42.8%	21.2%	65.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	42.8%	21.2%	65.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	42.8%	21.2%	65.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	42.8%	21.2%	65.1%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	42.8%	21.2%	52.9%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	42.8%	21.2%	52.9%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	42.8%	21.2%	52.9%	37.8%	47.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	44.4%	21.2%	52.9%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	44.4%	21.2%	52.9%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	44.4%	21.2%	52.9%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	44.4%	21.2%	52.9%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	44.4%	21.2%	52.9%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	44.4%	21.2%	54.8%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	44.4%	21.2%	54.8%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	44.4%	21.2%	54.8%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	48.4%	21.2%	54.8%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	48.4%	21.2%	54.8%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	48.4%	21.2%	54.8%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00	48.4%	21.2%	54.8%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	48.4%	21.2%	54.8%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	48.4%	21.2%	71.2%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	48.4%	21.2%	71.2%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	48.4%	21.2%	71.2%	29.6%	39.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	48.3%	21.2%	71.2%	29.6%	45.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	48.3%	21.2%	71.2%	29.6%	45.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	48.3%	21.2%	71.2%	29.6%	45.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	48.3%	21.2%	71.2%	29.6%	45.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	48.3%	30.3%	65.7%	33.0%	45.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	48.3%	30.3%	65.7%	33.0%	45.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	48.3%	30.3%	65.7%	33.0%	45.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	48.3%	30.3%	65.7%	33.0%	45.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	78.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	76.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	76.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗