Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 89°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
ICON +88.80u · WN2 −88.80u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICON | 22% | 83.1°F | 7.1°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 19% | 82.8°F | 6.6°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | Pending |
| National Blend | 4% | 77.0°F | 6.5°F | 2026-10-14 06:00 | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 3% | 78.5°F | 5.4°F | 2026-10-14 06:00 | Pending |
| NWS forecast | 2% | 77.0°F | 5.8°F | 2026-10-14 02:00 | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | <1% | 78.3°F | 4.3°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | <1% | 74.7°F | 4.7°F | 2026-10-14 00:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 89°F · KLAS
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC
Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Tue Oct 20
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗