KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	46.2%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	35.4%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.0%	41.9%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	17.1%	47.9%	2.4%	—	41.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	54.4%	88.3%	62.9%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	25.8%	30.3%	44.7%	—	31.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	17.9%	51.6%	77.6%	—	61.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	37.2%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	76.2%	21.9%	74.2%	—	68.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	30.3%	51.7%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	45.6%	70.1%	84.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	17.2%	72.9%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	17.8%	90.2%	93.0%	—	43.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	51.9%	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	33.0%	55.8%	93.5%	—	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	25.7%	76.6%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	46.9%	80.3%	95.8%	—	35.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	50.0%	92.4%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	54.4%	83.8%	91.5%	24.7%	55.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	88.2%	48.9%	—	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 70°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗