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KLAX / Sun May 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-05-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-05-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-05-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-05-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-05-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.3% · 2026-05-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-05-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-05-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-05-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-05-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-05-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-05-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-05-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-05-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-05-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-05-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-05-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-05-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.9% · 2026-05-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-05-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.5% · 2026-05-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-05-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.3% · 2026-05-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-05-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.6% · 2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.2% · 2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.5% · 2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.3% · 2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.9% · 2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.5% · 2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.7% · 2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.9% · 2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-05-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:0005-02 12:0005-10 00:0005-17 18:00
AIFS SingleGFSIFS archive
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSGFSIFS*
2026-05-02T12:00:00+00:001.6%——
2026-05-02T18:00:00+00:0015.9%——
2026-05-03T00:00:00+00:0032.0%——
2026-05-03T06:00:00+00:0018.2%——
2026-05-03T12:00:00+00:0027.9%——
2026-05-03T18:00:00+00:0070.3%——
2026-05-04T00:00:00+00:0044.2%——
2026-05-04T06:00:00+00:0025.2%——
2026-05-04T12:00:00+00:0020.8%——
2026-05-04T18:00:00+00:0033.5%——
2026-05-05T00:00:00+00:0026.1%——
2026-05-05T06:00:00+00:0019.7%——
2026-05-05T12:00:00+00:0022.4%——
2026-05-05T18:00:00+00:0029.7%——
2026-05-06T00:00:00+00:0028.8%——
2026-05-06T06:00:00+00:0034.0%——
2026-05-06T12:00:00+00:0032.5%——
2026-05-06T18:00:00+00:0024.0%——
2026-05-07T00:00:00+00:0042.9%——
2026-05-07T06:00:00+00:0024.6%——
2026-05-07T12:00:00+00:0027.5%——
2026-05-07T18:00:00+00:0033.2%——
2026-05-08T00:00:00+00:0030.3%——
2026-05-08T06:00:00+00:0032.1%——
2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:0037.5%——
2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:0039.6%——
2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:0038.2%——
2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:0024.5%——
2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:0033.6%——
2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:0030.3%——
2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:0043.9%——
2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:0036.5%——
2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:0031.7%——
2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:0019.9%——
2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:0015.2%——
2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:0017.4%——
2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:0020.0%——
2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:0017.9%——
2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:0013.6%——
2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:0017.8%——
2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:0014.4%——
2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:0015.4%——
2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:0010.7%——
2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:006.6%——
2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:006.4%——
2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:004.5%——
2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:005.3%——
2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:005.1%——
2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:003.3%0.1%0.0%
2026-05-15T18:00:00+00:002.5%——
2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:002.3%4.3%0.1%
2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:001.0%3.7%0.0%
2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:000.7%——
2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:000.8%4.0%0.0%
2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:000.6%——
2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:000.3%4.1%0.0%
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20260517-TMAX-GE75
Opened May 02 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun May 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗