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KLAX / Mon May 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 98.7% · 2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.4% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.8% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.5% · 2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.2% · 2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.3% · 2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.2% · 2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.2% · 2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.3% · 2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.5% · 2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.4% · 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-05-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-05-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-05-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-05-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-05-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-05-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-05-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-05-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-05-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-05-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-05-25T12:00:00+00:00GEFS: 16.0% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-25T12:00:00+00:0005-10 12:0005-18 12:0005-25 18:00
AIFS SingleGFSGEFSIFS archive
2026-05-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSGFSGEFSIFS*
2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:002.5%———
2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:0017.2%———
2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:0023.2%———
2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:0029.7%———
2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:0039.5%———
2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:0031.1%———
2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:0028.8%———
2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:0099.9%———
2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:0099.0%———
2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:0098.7%———
2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:0032.5%———
2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:0039.0%———
2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:0030.1%———
2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:0033.5%———
2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:0013.4%———
2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:007.8%———
2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:0017.1%———
2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:0010.7%———
2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:0011.4%———
2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:008.6%———
2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:0024.9%———
2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:0021.4%———
2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:0025.8%———
2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:0031.8%———
2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:0029.3%———
2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:0033.6%———
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:0027.5%———
2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:0036.1%———
2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:0035.2%———
2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:0036.9%———
2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:0035.3%———
2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:0039.2%———
2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:0031.3%———
2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:0029.6%—16.0%—
2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:0031.2%———
2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:0030.1%———
2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:0026.3%———
2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:0024.5%———
2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:0022.6%———
2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:0023.4%———
2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:0023.5%———
2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:0023.0%———
2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:0022.4%———
2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:0021.8%———
2026-05-22T06:00:00+00:0017.7%———
2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:0020.4%———
2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:0018.3%———
2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:0022.1%———
2026-05-23T06:00:00+00:0016.8%———
2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:0018.3%0.0%—0.0%
2026-05-23T18:00:00+00:0014.5%———
2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:0019.1%1.6%—0.1%
2026-05-24T06:00:00+00:0015.8%———
2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:0014.9%1.4%—0.0%
2026-05-24T18:00:00+00:009.8%———
2026-05-25T00:00:00+00:0013.8%0.7%—0.0%
2026-05-25T06:00:00+00:0012.0%———
2026-05-25T12:00:00+00:0013.4%0.5%—0.0%
2026-05-25T18:00:00+00:007.9%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20260525-TMAX-GE74
Opened May 10 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon May 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗