KMCO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 7.4¢Risks 3.70u

EPSNO 92.6¢Risks 46.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.30u · EPS −46.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:04+00:00	42.2%	9.7%	43.3%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	42.2%	9.7%	43.3%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	42.2%	9.7%	43.3%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	42.2%	9.7%	43.3%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	42.2%	7.3%	40.5%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	42.2%	7.3%	40.5%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	42.2%	7.3%	40.5%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	42.2%	7.3%	40.5%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	38.8%	7.3%	40.5%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	40.5%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	40.5%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	40.5%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	35.1%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	35.1%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	35.1%	16.4%	23.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	43.6%	6.7%	35.1%	16.4%	29.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	43.6%	6.7%	35.1%	16.4%	29.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	43.6%	6.7%	35.1%	16.4%	29.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:10+00:00	43.6%	6.7%	35.1%	16.4%	29.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	43.6%	6.7%	35.1%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	43.6%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	43.6%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	43.6%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:39+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	29.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	38.9%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	39.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	38.9%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	39.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	38.9%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	39.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	38.9%	6.7%	38.2%	28.0%	39.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:31+00:00	38.9%	6.7%	38.2%	28.1%	39.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	38.9%	3.6%	26.4%	28.1%	39.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	38.9%	3.6%	26.4%	28.1%	39.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	38.9%	3.6%	26.4%	28.1%	39.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	36.7%	3.6%	26.4%	28.1%	39.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	37.6%	3.9%	26.7%	28.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	37.6%	3.9%	26.7%	28.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	37.6%	3.9%	26.7%	28.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	37.6%	3.9%	26.7%	28.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	37.6%	3.9%	20.1%	28.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	37.6%	3.9%	20.1%	28.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	37.6%	3.9%	20.1%	28.2%	39.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	20.1%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	20.1%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	20.1%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	20.1%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	20.1%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	21.4%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	21.4%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	21.4%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	18.7%	3.9%	21.4%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	18.7%	3.9%	21.4%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	18.7%	3.9%	21.4%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	18.7%	3.9%	21.4%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	18.7%	3.9%	21.4%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	18.7%	3.9%	24.7%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	18.7%	3.9%	24.7%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	18.7%	3.9%	24.7%	6.8%	15.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	5.8%	3.9%	24.7%	2.7%	26.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	5.8%	3.9%	24.7%	2.7%	26.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	5.8%	3.9%	24.7%	2.7%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	5.8%	3.9%	24.7%	2.7%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	5.8%	3.9%	24.7%	2.7%	26.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	5.8%	3.9%	17.8%	2.7%	26.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	5.8%	0.6%	17.8%	2.7%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	5.8%	0.6%	17.8%	2.7%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	31.5%	0.6%	17.8%	2.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	31.5%	0.6%	17.8%	2.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	31.5%	0.7%	17.8%	2.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	31.5%	0.7%	17.8%	2.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	31.5%	0.7%	24.0%	2.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	31.5%	0.7%	24.0%	2.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	31.5%	0.7%	24.0%	2.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	31.5%	0.7%	24.0%	2.7%	27.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	6.6%	0.7%	24.0%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	6.6%	0.7%	24.0%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	6.6%	0.7%	24.0%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	6.6%	0.7%	24.0%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	6.6%	0.6%	15.9%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	6.5%	0.6%	15.9%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	6.5%	0.6%	15.9%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	9.2%	0.6%	15.9%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	9.2%	0.6%	15.9%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	9.2%	0.6%	15.9%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	9.2%	0.6%	15.9%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	9.2%	0.6%	15.9%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	9.2%	0.6%	14.2%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	9.2%	0.6%	14.2%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	9.2%	0.6%	14.2%	4.8%	25.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	14.2%	4.8%	12.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	14.2%	4.8%	12.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	14.2%	4.8%	12.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	14.2%	4.8%	12.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00	5.6%	0.6%	14.2%	4.8%	12.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	14%	84.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	82.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	81.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	78.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261020-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗