WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMEM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
19%
HRES
4%
EPS
2%
AIFS
2%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 9.7¢Risks 4.85u
VS
WN2NO 90.3¢Risks 45.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.15u · WN2 −45.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00IFS HRES: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00IFS HRES: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS HRES: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00IFS HRES: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:0010-13 05:0110-13 08:0310-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:000.8%2.5%0.5%11.8%24.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:000.8%2.5%0.5%11.8%24.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:000.8%2.5%0.5%11.8%24.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:000.8%2.5%0.5%11.8%24.3%
2026-10-13T08:03:17+00:002.0%2.5%0.5%4.2%18.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:002.0%2.5%0.5%4.2%18.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:002.0%2.5%0.5%4.2%18.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:002.0%2.5%0.5%4.2%18.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON19%83.3°F7.0°F2026-10-13 00:000.0357
National Blend6%81.0°F5.5°F2026-10-13 00:000.0040
NWS forecast5%80.0°F5.8°F2026-10-13 03:000.0026
IFS HRES4%78.2°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0018
IFS Ensemble2%79.3°F5.2°F2026-10-12 00:000.0006
AIFS Single2%78.6°F5.3°F2026-10-13 00:000.0004
WeatherNext 2<1%76.6°F5.0°F2026-10-12 18:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 05:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Memphis · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗