KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

13%

12%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.2¢Risks 4.10u

EPSNO 91.8¢Risks 45.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.90u · EPS −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	5.5%	5.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	5.5%	5.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	5.5%	5.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	9.0%	0.4%	5.5%	5.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	9.0%	0.4%	5.5%	5.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	9.0%	0.4%	5.5%	5.2%	21.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	9.8%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	9.8%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	9.8%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	9.8%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	11.9%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	11.9%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	11.9%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	11.9%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	11.8%	0.1%	11.9%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	11.8%	0.1%	11.9%	12.6%	16.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	11.8%	0.1%	11.9%	12.6%	16.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	16%	65.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0266
IFS HRES	13%	65.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0159
WeatherNext 2	12%	67.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0142
AIFS Single	12%	66.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0139
NWS forecast	2%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.0003
National Blend	<1%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	60.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 23:29 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗