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KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 30 · 07:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
69%
AIFS
62%
HRES
60%
EPS
31%
ICON
25%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 47.0¢Risks 47.05u
VS
ICONNO 53.0¢Risks 52.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.95u · ICON −52.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-09-30T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-09-30T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-09-30T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.0% · 2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.0% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.0% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.0% · 2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-09-30T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-09-30T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:0009-30 04:3009-30 06:0109-30 07:32
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-30T04:30:45+00:0061.7%31.3%61.5%60.5%25.1%
2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:0061.7%31.3%69.0%60.5%25.1%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:0061.7%31.3%69.0%60.5%25.1%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:0061.7%31.3%69.0%60.5%25.1%
2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:0061.7%31.3%69.0%60.5%25.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 269%78.2°F3.4°F2026-09-29 18:00Pending
AIFS Single62%77.7°F4.0°F2026-09-29 18:00Pending
National Blend61%77.1°F2.2°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending
IFS HRES60%77.5°F3.7°F2026-09-29 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%77.0°F2.2°F2026-09-30 04:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%74.9°F3.3°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
ICON25%74.2°F3.4°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 30 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 77°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗