KOKC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Oklahoma City, OKHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 3.6¢Risks 0.89u

EPSNO 96.5¢Risks 24.11u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.11u · EPS −24.11u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:01+00:00	13.1%	0.8%	5.6%	10.6%	0.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	13.1%	0.8%	5.6%	10.6%	0.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	13.1%	0.8%	5.6%	10.6%	0.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	13.1%	0.8%	5.6%	10.6%	0.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	7.5%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	7.5%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	7.5%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	7.5%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	10.0%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	8.9%	0.6%	10.0%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	8.9%	0.6%	10.0%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	10.0%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	10.0%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	10.0%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	10.0%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:44+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	10.0%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	8.4%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	8.4%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	8.4%	15.2%	25.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	7.7%	0.6%	8.4%	15.2%	17.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	7.7%	0.6%	8.4%	15.2%	17.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	7.7%	0.6%	8.4%	15.2%	17.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	7.7%	0.6%	8.4%	15.2%	17.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	7.7%	0.6%	8.4%	15.2%	17.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	7.7%	0.2%	5.2%	15.2%	17.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	7.7%	0.2%	5.2%	15.2%	17.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	7.7%	0.2%	5.2%	15.2%	17.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:45+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	5.2%	3.7%	17.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	9.2%	0.2%	5.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	5.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	5.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	5.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	9.2%	0.1%	8.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	8.2%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	8.2%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	8.2%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	8.2%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	8.2%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	12.8%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	12.8%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	12.8%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	12.8%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	12.8%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	12.8%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	12.8%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:11+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	12.8%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	10.7%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	10.7%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	10.7%	3.7%	10.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:44+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	10.7%	4.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	10.7%	4.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	10.7%	4.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	10.7%	4.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	10.7%	4.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	7.2%	4.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	7.2%	4.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	7.2%	4.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	7.1%	0.2%	7.2%	4.2%	5.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	7.0%	0.2%	7.2%	4.2%	6.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	7.0%	0.1%	7.2%	4.2%	6.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	7.0%	0.1%	7.2%	4.2%	6.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	7.0%	0.1%	4.7%	4.2%	6.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	7.0%	0.1%	4.7%	4.2%	6.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	7.0%	0.1%	4.7%	4.2%	6.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	7.0%	0.1%	4.7%	4.2%	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	14%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	82.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	80.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	82.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	79.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	79.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KOKC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KOKC-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Oklahoma City · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗