KPHX / Tue Aug 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESTime unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMGEFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	GEFS	IFS*
2026-07-20T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	84.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-07-20T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	97.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-21T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	94.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-07-21T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-21T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	98.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	99.4%	—	—	—	99.5%
2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	97.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-07-22T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	99.8%	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-07-22T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-23T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	99.0%	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-07-23T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-23T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	91.7%	—	—	—	99.5%
2026-07-23T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-24T00:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	98.7%	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-24T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	98.6%	—	—	—	99.2%
2026-07-24T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-25T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	99.9%	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-25T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	97.3%	—	61.2%	—	99.6%
2026-07-25T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-26T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	99.8%	—	99.8%	—	99.9%
2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-26T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	99.9%	—	99.1%	—	99.8%
2026-07-26T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	99.8%	—	92.4%	—	99.9%
2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-27T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	—	99.9%
2026-07-27T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-28T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	78.7%	99.9%	—	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-28T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	100.0%	100.0%	95.8%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-07-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-07-29T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026-07-29T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-07-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-07-30T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	100.0%
2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-07-30T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.2%	—	—	—	—	100.0%
2026-07-31T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	77.2%	—	100.0%
2026-07-31T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—	100.0%
2026-07-31T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-07-31T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—	100.0%
2026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%
2026-08-01T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—	100.0%
2026-08-01T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-08-01T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—	100.0%
2026-08-02T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-08-02T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	—	—	100.0%
2026-08-02T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-08-02T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-08-03T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-08-03T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-08-03T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-08-03T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-08-04T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-08-04T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-08-04T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-08-04T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20260804-TMAX-GE90
Opened Jul 20 · 06:00 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Tue Aug 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗