KPHX / Tue Sep 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESTime unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-08-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-08-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-08-18T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-19T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-08-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-19T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-20T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-08-20T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-20T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-08-20T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-21T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-08-21T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-21T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-08-21T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-22T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-08-22T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-22T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-08-22T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-23T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-08-23T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-08-23T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	98.9%
2026-08-23T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-08-24T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	97.5%	—	—	98.1%
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	97.1%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	99.9%	—	—	97.5%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	99.5%	59.1%	—	97.7%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	97.6%	99.8%	—	98.9%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	93.0%	99.8%	—	99.4%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	95.7%	—	—	88.7%
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.0%	95.5%	99.7%	—	99.5%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	97.6%	—	—	99.1%
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.7%	98.1%	99.9%	—	98.8%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	95.5%	99.2%	—	—	98.0%
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.7%	98.1%	99.8%	—	99.4%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.9%	97.9%	—	—	99.4%
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	95.2%	98.8%	100.0%	—	98.0%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	98.9%	99.1%	—	—	99.2%
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	94.4%	99.6%	100.0%	—	98.8%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	97.5%	90.8%	99.5%	—	—	98.8%
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	98.0%	99.6%	100.0%	—	99.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	97.4%	99.6%	—	—	99.7%
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	98.5%	99.8%	99.9%	0.0%	98.9%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	96.9%	99.9%	8.7%	—	98.0%
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	97.7%	99.8%	99.6%	—	99.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.5%	99.8%	99.8%	—	99.2%
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.1%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	99.9%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.6%	100.0%	99.4%	100.0%	93.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.8%	100.0%	98.7%	—	91.9%
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	99.7%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20260901-TMAX-GE90
Opened Aug 17 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Tue Sep 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗