KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

71%

71%

48%

19%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

ICONNO 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.35u · ICON −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:17+00:00	74.3%	72.7%	56.4%	11.1%	18.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	74.3%	71.4%	56.4%	11.1%	18.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	74.3%	71.4%	56.4%	11.1%	18.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	74.3%	71.4%	45.7%	11.1%	18.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	74.3%	71.4%	45.7%	11.1%	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	74.3%	71.4%	45.7%	11.1%	18.4%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	69.2%	71.4%	45.7%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	69.2%	71.4%	45.7%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	69.2%	71.4%	45.7%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	69.2%	71.4%	45.7%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	69.2%	71.4%	45.7%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	69.2%	71.4%	47.9%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	69.2%	71.4%	47.9%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	69.2%	71.4%	47.9%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:40+00:00	76.4%	71.4%	47.9%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	76.4%	71.4%	47.9%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	76.4%	71.4%	47.9%	71.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	76.4%	71.4%	47.9%	71.2%	18.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	84.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	86.4°F	8.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	84.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	82.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	81.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	77.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗