KPHX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

17%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.4¢Risks 5.70u

WN2NO 88.6¢Risks 44.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.30u · WN2 −44.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:34:04+00:00	14.0%	8.8%	9.1%	36.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	14.0%	8.8%	9.1%	36.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	14.0%	8.8%	9.1%	36.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	14.0%	8.8%	9.1%	36.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	14.0%	8.8%	9.1%	36.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	14.0%	8.5%	2.9%	36.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	14.0%	8.5%	2.9%	36.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	14.0%	8.5%	2.9%	36.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	13.3%	8.5%	2.9%	36.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	13.2%	8.5%	2.9%	36.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T15:14:02+00:00	13.2%	8.2%	2.9%	36.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	13.2%	8.2%	2.9%	36.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	13.2%	8.2%	2.9%	36.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	13.2%	8.2%	8.5%	36.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	13.2%	8.2%	8.5%	36.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	13.2%	8.2%	8.5%	36.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	15.2%	8.2%	8.5%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	15.2%	8.2%	8.5%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	15.2%	8.2%	8.5%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	15.2%	8.2%	8.5%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:20+00:00	15.2%	8.2%	8.5%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	15.2%	8.2%	7.3%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	15.2%	8.2%	7.3%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	15.2%	8.2%	7.3%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	11.1%	8.2%	7.3%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	11.1%	8.2%	7.3%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	11.1%	8.2%	7.3%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T04:06:02+00:00	11.1%	8.2%	7.3%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	11.1%	8.2%	7.3%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	11.1%	8.2%	5.4%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	11.1%	8.2%	5.4%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	11.1%	8.2%	5.4%	37.2%	36.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	15.0%	8.2%	5.4%	37.2%	20.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	15.0%	8.2%	5.4%	37.2%	20.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	15.0%	8.2%	5.4%	37.2%	20.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	15.0%	8.2%	5.4%	37.2%	20.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:32+00:00	15.0%	4.2%	2.4%	17.0%	20.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	15.0%	4.2%	2.4%	17.0%	20.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	15.0%	4.2%	2.4%	17.0%	20.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	15.0%	4.2%	2.4%	17.0%	20.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	20%	86.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	86.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	86.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	83.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261026-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗