KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

90%

58%

43%

37%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.0¢Risks 68.05u

HRESNO 31.9¢Risks 31.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.95u · HRES −31.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00	65.7%	93.0%	99.3%	77.4%	67.1%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	65.7%	93.0%	99.3%	77.4%	67.1%
2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00	65.7%	93.0%	99.3%	77.4%	59.2%
2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00	65.7%	93.0%	99.3%	77.4%	59.2%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	65.7%	93.0%	99.3%	77.4%	59.2%
2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00	65.7%	93.0%	99.3%	77.4%	59.2%
2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00	67.3%	93.0%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00	67.3%	93.0%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00	67.3%	93.0%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	67.3%	93.0%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00	67.3%	93.0%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00	67.3%	88.5%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00	67.3%	88.5%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00	67.3%	88.5%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00	88.4%	88.5%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00	88.4%	88.5%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00	88.4%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00	88.4%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	59.2%
2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00	88.4%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	43.3%
2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00	88.4%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	43.3%
2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00	88.4%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	43.3%
2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00	88.4%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	43.3%
2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00	68.8%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	43.3%
2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00	68.8%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	43.3%
2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00	68.8%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	43.3%
2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00	68.8%	89.6%	99.3%	39.9%	43.3%
2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00	68.8%	89.6%	99.3%	36.8%	43.3%
2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00	68.8%	89.6%	99.3%	36.8%	43.3%
2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00	68.8%	89.6%	99.3%	36.8%	43.3%
2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00	68.8%	89.6%	99.3%	36.8%	43.3%
2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00	57.6%	89.6%	99.3%	36.8%	43.3%
2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00	57.6%	89.6%	99.3%	36.8%	43.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	70.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	66.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	65.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	43%	64.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	63.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗