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KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
90%
EPS
67%
HRES
46%
ICON
34%
AIFS
27%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 58.4¢Risks 58.40u
VS
AIFSNO 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.60u · AIFS −41.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-09-17T15:00:44+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T15:00:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.9% · 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T15:00:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.7% · 2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.5% · 2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.5% · 2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.5% · 2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.5% · 2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.5% · 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T15:00:44+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 29.2% · 2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 45.9% · 2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00IFS HRES: 45.9% · 2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00IFS HRES: 45.9% · 2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00IFS HRES: 45.9% · 2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00IFS HRES: 45.9% · 2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 45.9% · 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-09-17T15:00:44+00:00ICON: 64.0% · 2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:0009-17 15:0009-17 21:0109-18 02:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-17T15:00:44+00:0012.1%66.9%80.7%29.2%64.0%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:0012.1%66.9%80.7%29.2%64.0%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:0012.1%66.9%80.7%29.2%34.1%
2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:0012.1%66.9%80.7%29.2%34.1%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:0012.1%66.9%80.7%29.2%34.1%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:0012.1%66.9%80.7%29.2%34.1%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:0047.6%66.9%80.7%29.2%34.1%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:0047.6%66.9%80.7%29.2%34.1%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:0047.6%66.9%80.7%29.2%34.1%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:0047.6%66.9%80.7%29.2%34.1%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:0047.6%66.9%80.7%45.9%34.1%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:0047.6%66.9%89.5%45.9%34.1%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:0047.6%66.9%89.5%45.9%34.1%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:0047.6%66.9%89.5%45.9%34.1%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:0027.3%66.9%89.5%45.9%34.1%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:0027.3%66.9%89.5%45.9%34.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 290%75.7°F4.2°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble67%72.6°F4.8°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
National Blend58%72.0°F7.6°F2026-09-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%71.0°F5.1°F2026-09-17 14:00Pending
IFS HRES46%69.9°F5.8°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
ICON34%68.1°F5.9°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single27%67.5°F5.0°F2026-09-17 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 17 · 15:00 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗