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KPIT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
35%
ICON
28%
AIFS
26%
HRES
14%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 17.5¢Risks 17.55u
VS
EPSNO 82.5¢Risks 82.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +82.45u · EPS −82.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.4% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.1% · 2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS HRES: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:0010-13 08:0210-13 09:3410-14 10:32
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:0039.5%0.7%35.4%17.2%6.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:0039.5%0.7%35.4%17.2%6.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:0039.5%0.7%35.4%17.2%6.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:0039.5%0.7%35.4%17.2%6.3%
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:0026.1%0.0%35.1%14.3%28.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 235%72.6°F5.0°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
ICON28%70.4°F7.0°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single26%71.1°F5.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES14%67.5°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
NWS forecast4%64.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending
National Blend<1%66.0°F3.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%64.7°F2.8°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗