KPIT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

29%

21%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 16.7¢Risks 16.70u

EPSNO 83.3¢Risks 83.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +83.30u · EPS −83.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	42.9%	0.3%	44.1%	19.3%	10.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	42.9%	0.1%	44.4%	19.3%	10.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	42.9%	0.1%	44.4%	19.3%	10.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	42.9%	0.1%	44.4%	19.3%	10.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	44.4%	19.3%	10.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	44.4%	19.3%	10.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:02+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	44.4%	19.3%	10.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	44.4%	19.3%	10.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	44.4%	19.3%	10.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	37.5%	19.3%	10.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	37.5%	19.3%	10.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	38.1%	0.1%	37.5%	19.3%	10.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	24.4%	0.1%	37.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	24.4%	0.1%	37.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	24.4%	0.1%	37.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	24.4%	0.1%	37.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	24.4%	0.1%	37.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00	24.4%	0.1%	37.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	24.4%	0.1%	25.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	24.4%	0.1%	25.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	32.8%	0.1%	25.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	32.8%	0.1%	25.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	32.8%	0.1%	25.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T04:01:49+00:00	32.8%	0.1%	25.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	32.8%	0.1%	25.5%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	32.8%	0.1%	28.1%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	32.8%	0.1%	28.1%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	32.8%	0.1%	28.1%	4.6%	31.8%
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	34.2%	0.1%	28.1%	9.6%	19.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	34.2%	0.1%	28.1%	9.6%	19.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	34.2%	0.1%	28.1%	9.6%	19.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	34.2%	0.1%	28.1%	9.6%	19.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	34.2%	0.1%	28.1%	9.6%	19.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00	34.2%	0.1%	31.9%	9.6%	19.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	34.8%	0.0%	31.9%	9.6%	19.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	34.8%	0.0%	31.9%	9.6%	19.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:44+00:00	34.8%	0.0%	31.9%	9.6%	19.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	34.8%	0.0%	31.9%	9.6%	19.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	34.8%	0.0%	35.8%	9.6%	19.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	34.8%	0.0%	35.8%	9.6%	19.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	34.8%	0.0%	35.8%	9.6%	19.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	34.8%	0.0%	35.8%	9.6%	19.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	32.1%	0.0%	35.8%	11.9%	27.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	32.1%	0.0%	35.8%	11.9%	27.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	32.1%	0.0%	35.8%	11.9%	27.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	32.1%	0.0%	35.8%	11.9%	27.2%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	32.1%	0.0%	31.1%	11.9%	27.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	32.1%	0.0%	31.1%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	32.1%	0.0%	31.1%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	30.2%	0.0%	31.1%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	30.2%	0.0%	31.1%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	30.2%	0.0%	31.1%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	30.2%	0.0%	31.1%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	30.2%	0.0%	31.1%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	30.2%	0.0%	33.4%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	30.2%	0.0%	33.4%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	30.2%	0.0%	33.4%	11.9%	27.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	33.4%	11.9%	20.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	33.4%	11.9%	20.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	33.4%	11.9%	20.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	33.4%	11.9%	20.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	33.4%	11.9%	20.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	33%	72.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	71.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	69.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	66.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗