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KRDU / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
62%
WN2
57%
HRES
28%
EPS
12%
ICON
3%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.60u
VS
ICONNO 67.4¢Risks 67.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.40u · ICON −67.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00IFS HRES: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00IFS HRES: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 28.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:0062.3%12.2%57.2%28.3%2.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0062.3%12.2%57.2%28.3%2.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0062.3%12.2%57.2%28.3%2.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0062.3%12.2%57.2%28.3%2.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:0062.3%12.2%57.2%28.3%2.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single62%75.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 257%74.5°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
National Blend55%74.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES28%69.8°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble12%68.6°F4.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON3%54.5°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗