KRIC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

69%

32%

31%

26%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.6¢Risks 53.65u

HRESNO 46.4¢Risks 46.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.35u · HRES −46.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:44+00:00	76.9%	75.0%	91.3%	89.2%	85.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	76.9%	76.1%	91.3%	89.2%	85.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	76.9%	76.1%	89.8%	89.2%	85.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	76.9%	76.1%	89.8%	89.2%	85.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	76.9%	76.1%	89.8%	89.2%	85.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	76.9%	76.1%	89.8%	89.2%	85.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	81.2%	76.1%	89.8%	69.8%	92.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	81.2%	76.1%	89.8%	69.8%	92.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	81.2%	76.1%	89.8%	69.8%	92.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	81.2%	76.1%	89.8%	69.8%	92.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	81.2%	76.1%	89.4%	69.8%	92.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	81.2%	76.1%	89.4%	69.8%	92.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	81.2%	76.1%	89.4%	69.8%	92.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	81.2%	76.1%	89.4%	69.8%	92.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	85.8%	76.1%	89.4%	69.8%	92.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	85.8%	76.1%	89.4%	69.8%	92.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	85.8%	76.1%	89.4%	69.8%	92.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:20+00:00	85.8%	76.1%	89.4%	69.8%	92.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	85.8%	76.1%	91.6%	69.8%	92.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	85.8%	76.1%	91.6%	69.8%	92.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:04+00:00	85.8%	76.1%	91.6%	69.8%	92.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	85.8%	76.1%	91.6%	69.8%	92.0%
2026-10-13T08:02:45+00:00	76.8%	76.1%	91.6%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	76.8%	76.1%	91.6%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	76.8%	76.1%	91.6%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	76.8%	76.1%	91.6%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	76.8%	66.2%	73.0%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	76.8%	66.2%	73.0%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	76.8%	66.2%	73.0%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	76.8%	66.2%	73.0%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	72.8%	66.2%	72.8%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	72.8%	67.1%	72.8%	62.9%	85.0%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	80.8%	43.9%	67.6%	26.8%	38.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	80.8%	43.9%	67.6%	26.8%	38.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	80.8%	43.9%	74.9%	26.8%	38.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	80.8%	43.9%	74.9%	26.8%	38.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	80.8%	43.9%	74.9%	26.8%	38.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:04+00:00	75.8%	43.9%	74.9%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	75.8%	43.9%	74.9%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00	75.8%	43.9%	74.9%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	75.8%	43.9%	74.9%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	75.8%	43.9%	74.9%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	75.8%	43.9%	78.0%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	75.8%	42.6%	78.0%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:07+00:00	75.8%	42.6%	78.0%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	87.9%	42.6%	78.0%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	87.9%	42.6%	78.0%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	87.9%	45.3%	78.0%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	87.9%	45.3%	78.0%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	87.9%	45.3%	89.4%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	87.9%	45.3%	89.4%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:56+00:00	87.9%	45.3%	89.4%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	87.9%	45.3%	89.4%	31.1%	34.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	80.0%	45.3%	89.4%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	80.0%	45.3%	89.4%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	80.0%	45.3%	89.4%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	80.0%	45.3%	89.4%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	80.0%	45.3%	80.5%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	80.0%	45.3%	80.5%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	80.0%	45.3%	80.5%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	78.0%	45.3%	80.5%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	78.0%	45.3%	80.5%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	78.0%	45.3%	80.5%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	78.0%	45.3%	80.5%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00	78.0%	45.3%	80.5%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	78.0%	45.3%	78.0%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	78.0%	45.3%	78.0%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	78.0%	45.3%	78.0%	38.6%	45.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	76.2%	45.3%	78.0%	38.6%	31.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	76.2%	45.3%	78.0%	38.6%	31.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	76.2%	45.3%	78.0%	38.6%	31.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	76.2%	45.3%	78.0%	38.6%	31.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	76.2%	45.3%	78.0%	38.6%	31.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	76.2%	30.5%	68.6%	38.6%	31.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	76.2%	30.5%	68.6%	38.6%	31.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	76.2%	30.5%	68.6%	38.6%	31.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:03+00:00	81.8%	30.5%	68.6%	25.5%	31.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	81.8%	30.6%	68.6%	25.5%	31.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0331
WeatherNext 2	69%	63.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0986
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
ICON	32%	59.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4679
IFS Ensemble	31%	59.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4816
National Blend	28%	59.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5155
IFS HRES	26%	58.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5550

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗