KRIC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

68%

62%

41%

15%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

EPSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.40u · EPS −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00	70.5%	15.9%	68.1%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	70.5%	15.9%	68.1%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	70.5%	15.9%	68.1%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	67.4%	15.9%	68.1%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	67.5%	15.9%	68.1%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	67.5%	14.6%	68.1%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	67.5%	14.6%	68.1%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	67.5%	14.6%	68.1%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	67.5%	14.6%	80.0%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	67.5%	14.6%	80.0%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	67.5%	14.6%	80.0%	40.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	68.7%	14.6%	80.0%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	68.7%	14.6%	80.0%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	68.7%	14.6%	80.0%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	68.7%	14.6%	80.0%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	68.7%	14.6%	80.0%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	68.7%	14.6%	76.6%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	68.7%	14.6%	76.6%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:35+00:00	68.7%	14.6%	76.6%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	68.1%	14.6%	76.6%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	68.1%	14.6%	76.6%	41.4%	62.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	68.1%	14.6%	76.6%	41.4%	62.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	75.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	74.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	62%	74.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	70.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	67.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261026-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗