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KSAN / Sun May 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-05-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-05-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-05-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-05-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-05-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-05-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-05-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-05-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-05-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-05-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-05-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-05-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-05-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-05-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-05-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-05-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-05-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-05-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-05-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-05-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-05-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-05-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-05-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-05-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.2% · 2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.2% · 2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-05-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:0005-02 12:0005-10 00:0005-17 18:00
AIFS SingleGFSIFS archive
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSGFSIFS*
2026-05-02T12:00:00+00:004.0%——
2026-05-02T18:00:00+00:0012.8%——
2026-05-03T00:00:00+00:0014.6%——
2026-05-03T06:00:00+00:0012.6%——
2026-05-03T12:00:00+00:0012.8%——
2026-05-03T18:00:00+00:0046.3%——
2026-05-04T00:00:00+00:0012.8%——
2026-05-04T06:00:00+00:0015.6%——
2026-05-04T12:00:00+00:0016.5%——
2026-05-04T18:00:00+00:0023.2%——
2026-05-05T00:00:00+00:0019.7%——
2026-05-05T06:00:00+00:0012.8%——
2026-05-05T12:00:00+00:0012.8%——
2026-05-05T18:00:00+00:0017.2%——
2026-05-06T00:00:00+00:0012.3%——
2026-05-06T06:00:00+00:0022.4%——
2026-05-06T12:00:00+00:0018.1%——
2026-05-06T18:00:00+00:0014.5%——
2026-05-07T00:00:00+00:0012.0%——
2026-05-07T06:00:00+00:0011.4%——
2026-05-07T12:00:00+00:009.0%——
2026-05-07T18:00:00+00:0015.9%——
2026-05-08T00:00:00+00:009.5%——
2026-05-08T06:00:00+00:0017.3%——
2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:0010.6%——
2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:0024.3%——
2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:0010.7%——
2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:0014.1%——
2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:0011.0%——
2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:0022.2%——
2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:0010.2%——
2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:0021.8%——
2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:008.5%——
2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:009.5%——
2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:003.6%——
2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:005.8%——
2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:005.2%——
2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:003.9%——
2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:003.1%——
2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:006.6%——
2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:003.9%——
2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:005.6%——
2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:003.4%——
2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:001.9%——
2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:001.7%——
2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:001.1%——
2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:001.0%——
2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:000.9%——
2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%0.1%
2026-05-15T18:00:00+00:000.2%——
2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.6%0.1%
2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.6%0.0%
2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:000.1%——
2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%0.0%
2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%——
2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20260517-TMAX-GE74
Opened May 02 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Sun May 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗