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KSAN / Mon May 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-05-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-05-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-05-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-05-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-05-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-05-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-05-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-05-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-05-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-05-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-05-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-05-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-05-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-05-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-05-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-05-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-05-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-05-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-05-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-05-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.7% · 2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-05-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:0005-03 12:0005-11 00:0005-18 18:00
AIFS SingleGFSIFS archive
2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSGFSIFS*
2026-05-03T12:00:00+00:005.6%——
2026-05-03T18:00:00+00:0031.6%——
2026-05-04T00:00:00+00:0014.3%——
2026-05-04T06:00:00+00:0011.0%——
2026-05-04T12:00:00+00:0016.5%——
2026-05-04T18:00:00+00:0019.7%——
2026-05-05T00:00:00+00:0016.9%——
2026-05-05T06:00:00+00:0010.0%——
2026-05-05T12:00:00+00:0010.8%——
2026-05-05T18:00:00+00:0014.6%——
2026-05-06T00:00:00+00:0012.6%——
2026-05-06T06:00:00+00:0020.8%——
2026-05-06T12:00:00+00:0022.4%——
2026-05-06T18:00:00+00:0012.8%——
2026-05-07T00:00:00+00:0012.0%——
2026-05-07T06:00:00+00:0010.5%——
2026-05-07T12:00:00+00:0010.0%——
2026-05-07T18:00:00+00:0016.1%——
2026-05-08T00:00:00+00:0010.0%——
2026-05-08T06:00:00+00:0015.0%——
2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:0011.0%——
2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:0021.7%——
2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:0011.1%——
2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:0014.4%——
2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:0011.5%——
2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:0014.3%——
2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:0010.1%——
2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:0023.0%——
2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:009.9%——
2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:0013.3%——
2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:009.0%——
2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:009.8%——
2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:007.2%——
2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:0015.7%——
2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:007.9%——
2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00100.0%——
2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:0033.4%——
2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:0011.6%——
2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:0026.7%——
2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:0010.1%——
2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:0014.0%——
2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:006.1%——
2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:0013.7%——
2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:0015.3%——
2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:0015.2%——
2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:009.4%——
2026-05-15T18:00:00+00:007.6%——
2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:008.1%——
2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:004.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:002.9%——
2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:002.3%2.5%0.1%
2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:002.4%——
2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:001.7%1.4%0.0%
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:001.0%——
2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:000.7%1.3%0.0%
2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:000.4%——
2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:000.6%2.6%0.0%
2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20260518-TMAX-GE74
Opened May 03 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon May 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗