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KSAN / Thu May 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-05-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-05-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-05-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-05-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-05-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-05-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-05-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-05-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.3% · 2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.3% · 2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.0% · 2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.7% · 2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.3% · 2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.6% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.9% · 2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.7% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.7% · 2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.5% · 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.1% · 2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.3% · 2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.8% · 2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.6% · 2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.5% · 2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.0% · 2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.1% · 2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.2% · 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.3% · 2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00GEFS: 3.5% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:0005-06 12:0005-14 00:0005-21 18:00
AIFS SingleGFSGEFSIFS archive
2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSGFSGEFSIFS*
2026-05-06T12:00:00+00:003.8%———
2026-05-06T18:00:00+00:005.8%———
2026-05-07T00:00:00+00:0013.1%———
2026-05-07T06:00:00+00:0011.0%———
2026-05-07T12:00:00+00:0010.8%———
2026-05-07T18:00:00+00:0011.8%———
2026-05-08T00:00:00+00:0010.8%———
2026-05-08T06:00:00+00:007.3%———
2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:0011.0%———
2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:0016.9%———
2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:0013.1%———
2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:0017.2%———
2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:0015.9%———
2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:0024.8%———
2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:0018.6%———
2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:0027.0%———
2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:0018.1%———
2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:0022.8%———
2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:0012.6%———
2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:0017.8%———
2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:0017.4%———
2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:0021.3%———
2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:0012.9%———
2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:0099.8%———
2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:0087.6%———
2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:0060.9%———
2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:0020.3%———
2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:0048.0%———
2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:0045.2%———
2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:0032.3%———
2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:0030.7%———
2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:0041.3%———
2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:0042.6%———
2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:0060.6%———
2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:0039.7%———
2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:0033.0%———
2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:0033.4%———
2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:0033.0%———
2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:0022.9%———
2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:0034.7%———
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:0022.4%———
2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:0024.7%———
2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:0021.9%———
2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:0028.5%———
2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:0031.6%———
2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:0033.1%———
2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:0033.6%———
2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:0028.9%—3.5%0.5%
2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:0025.3%———
2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:0032.0%45.0%—0.9%
2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:0032.5%———
2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:0036.8%38.1%—0.5%
2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:0027.6%———
2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:0045.7%44.2%—0.2%
2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:0045.5%———
2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:0050.0%26.3%—0.1%
2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:0021.6%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20260521-TMAX-GE74
Opened May 06 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Thu May 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗