KSAN / Fri May 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleGFSGEFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	GFS	GEFS	IFS*
2026-05-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-05-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-05-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-05-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—
2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—
2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—
2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—
2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	1.8%	—
2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.7%	—	0.1%
2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	24.6%	—	0.2%
2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	14.9%	—	0.1%
2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	6.3%	—	0.0%
2026-05-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	2.2%	—	0.0%
2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20260522-TMAX-GE74
Opened May 07 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Fri May 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗