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KSAN / Sat May 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.9% · 2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.6% · 2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-05-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-05-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-05-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00GEFS: 2.1% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:0005-08 12:0005-16 12:0005-23 18:00
AIFS SingleGFSGEFSIFS archive
2026-05-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSGFSGEFSIFS*
2026-05-08T12:00:00+00:004.0%———
2026-05-08T18:00:00+00:0017.9%———
2026-05-09T00:00:00+00:0012.3%———
2026-05-09T06:00:00+00:0018.6%———
2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:0016.2%———
2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:0023.2%———
2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:0017.2%———
2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:0028.3%———
2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:0017.2%———
2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:0015.6%———
2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:0015.6%———
2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:0025.2%———
2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:0017.9%———
2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:0021.6%———
2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:0014.6%———
2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:0099.9%———
2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:0023.7%———
2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:0018.9%———
2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:0014.5%———
2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:0020.9%———
2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:0018.9%———
2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:0020.6%———
2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:0020.2%———
2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:0019.8%———
2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:0016.4%———
2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:0016.8%———
2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:0015.1%———
2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:0012.6%———
2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:0015.7%———
2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:0015.2%———
2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:0013.5%———
2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:0012.9%———
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:0010.5%———
2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:0011.5%———
2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:009.9%———
2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:009.7%———
2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:009.2%———
2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:0013.6%———
2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:0011.2%———
2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:0011.5%—2.1%—
2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:009.2%———
2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:0011.6%———
2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:008.8%———
2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:008.6%———
2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:007.6%———
2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:008.5%———
2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:006.0%———
2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:005.7%0.1%—0.0%
2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:003.7%———
2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:004.3%11.8%—0.1%
2026-05-22T06:00:00+00:002.6%———
2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:002.6%7.9%—0.1%
2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:001.7%———
2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:001.8%10.8%—0.0%
2026-05-23T06:00:00+00:001.0%———
2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:001.5%4.4%—0.0%
2026-05-23T18:00:00+00:000.6%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20260523-TMAX-GE74
Opened May 08 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Sat May 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗