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KSAN / Sun May 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.6% · 2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.3% · 2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.4% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.9% · 2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.5% · 2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.6% · 2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-05-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-05-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-05-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-05-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-05-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:00GEFS: 3.1% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:0005-09 12:0005-17 12:0005-24 18:00
AIFS SingleGFSGEFSIFS archive
2026-05-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSGFSGEFSIFS*
2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:008.9%———
2026-05-09T18:00:00+00:0014.9%———
2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:0016.2%———
2026-05-10T06:00:00+00:0016.2%———
2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:0011.5%———
2026-05-10T18:00:00+00:0011.5%———
2026-05-11T00:00:00+00:0013.7%———
2026-05-11T06:00:00+00:0020.4%———
2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:0016.2%———
2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:0019.7%———
2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:0014.0%———
2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:0018.6%———
2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:0021.9%———
2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:0018.1%———
2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:0017.1%———
2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:0018.1%———
2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:0017.0%———
2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:0017.3%———
2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:0016.6%———
2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:0013.4%———
2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:0017.7%———
2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:0022.0%———
2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:0016.8%———
2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:0019.8%———
2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:0019.8%———
2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:0021.3%———
2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:0019.4%———
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:0018.0%———
2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:0019.9%———
2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:0020.5%———
2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:0021.1%———
2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:0017.4%———
2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:0020.6%———
2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:0018.9%———
2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:0017.3%—3.1%—
2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:0015.2%———
2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:0018.4%———
2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:0016.1%———
2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:0015.4%———
2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:0013.7%———
2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:0013.6%———
2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:0011.0%———
2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:0011.8%———
2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:008.8%———
2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:009.0%———
2026-05-22T06:00:00+00:006.7%———
2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:005.7%0.2%—0.1%
2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:004.5%———
2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:004.6%11.8%—0.2%
2026-05-23T06:00:00+00:003.2%———
2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:003.2%7.4%—0.0%
2026-05-23T18:00:00+00:002.3%———
2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:002.3%2.9%—0.0%
2026-05-24T06:00:00+00:002.2%———
2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:003.1%2.6%—0.0%
2026-05-24T18:00:00+00:000.4%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20260524-TMAX-GE74
Opened May 09 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Sun May 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗