WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSAN / Tue May 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.9% · 2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.6% · 2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-05-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-05-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-05-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-05-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-05-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-05-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-05-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-05-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-05-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-05-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-05-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-05-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-05-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-05-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-05-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-05-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-05-26T12:00:00+00:00GEFS: 4.2% · 2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-05-26T12:00:00+00:0005-11 12:0005-19 12:0005-26 18:00
AIFS SingleGFSGEFSIFS archive
2026-05-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSGFSGEFSIFS*
2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:006.9%———
2026-05-11T18:00:00+00:0015.9%———
2026-05-12T00:00:00+00:0012.0%———
2026-05-12T06:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-12T18:00:00+00:0099.9%———
2026-05-13T00:00:00+00:00100.0%———
2026-05-13T06:00:00+00:0026.5%———
2026-05-13T12:00:00+00:0037.5%———
2026-05-13T18:00:00+00:0022.0%———
2026-05-14T00:00:00+00:0021.6%———
2026-05-14T06:00:00+00:0017.9%———
2026-05-14T12:00:00+00:003.1%———
2026-05-14T18:00:00+00:0031.1%———
2026-05-15T00:00:00+00:006.1%———
2026-05-15T06:00:00+00:008.1%———
2026-05-15T12:00:00+00:0012.2%———
2026-05-16T00:00:00+00:008.0%———
2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:004.2%———
2026-05-16T18:00:00+00:008.2%———
2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:0011.4%———
2026-05-17T06:00:00+00:0012.5%———
2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:0023.7%———
2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:0018.5%———
2026-05-18T00:00:00+00:0020.6%———
2026-05-18T06:00:00+00:0019.3%———
2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:0017.2%———
2026-05-18T18:00:00+00:0010.3%———
2026-05-19T00:00:00+00:0015.5%———
2026-05-19T06:00:00+00:0011.7%———
2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:008.2%—4.2%—
2026-05-19T18:00:00+00:008.0%———
2026-05-20T00:00:00+00:007.1%———
2026-05-20T06:00:00+00:006.2%———
2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:004.8%———
2026-05-20T18:00:00+00:004.3%———
2026-05-21T00:00:00+00:004.9%———
2026-05-21T06:00:00+00:004.1%———
2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:005.1%———
2026-05-21T18:00:00+00:004.7%———
2026-05-22T00:00:00+00:003.2%———
2026-05-22T06:00:00+00:002.5%———
2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:002.3%———
2026-05-22T18:00:00+00:002.3%———
2026-05-23T00:00:00+00:002.4%———
2026-05-23T06:00:00+00:001.4%———
2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:001.4%———
2026-05-23T18:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-05-24T00:00:00+00:001.1%———
2026-05-24T06:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%—0.1%
2026-05-24T18:00:00+00:000.3%———
2026-05-25T00:00:00+00:000.4%1.6%—0.0%
2026-05-25T06:00:00+00:000.2%———
2026-05-25T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.9%—0.0%
2026-05-25T18:00:00+00:000.1%———
2026-05-26T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.6%—0.0%
2026-05-26T06:00:00+00:000.1%———
2026-05-26T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%—0.0%
2026-05-26T18:00:00+00:000.0%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20260526-TMAX-GE74
Opened May 11 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue May 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗