KSAT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

40%

24%

14%

13%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.0¢Risks 29.00u

EPSNO 71.0¢Risks 71.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.00u · EPS −71.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:55+00:00	22.7%	39.8%	23.1%	32.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	22.7%	39.8%	23.1%	32.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	22.7%	39.8%	23.1%	32.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	22.7%	39.8%	23.1%	32.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	22.7%	39.8%	23.1%	32.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	22.7%	41.7%	19.4%	32.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	22.7%	41.7%	19.4%	32.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	22.7%	41.7%	19.4%	32.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	27.7%	41.7%	19.4%	32.1%	5.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	27.7%	41.7%	19.5%	32.1%	5.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	27.7%	32.8%	19.5%	32.1%	5.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	27.7%	32.8%	19.5%	32.1%	5.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	27.7%	32.8%	18.9%	32.1%	5.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	27.7%	32.8%	18.9%	32.1%	5.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	27.7%	32.8%	18.9%	32.1%	5.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	27.7%	32.8%	18.9%	32.1%	5.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	18.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	18.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	18.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	18.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	16.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	16.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	16.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	16.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	16.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	16.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	23.3%	32.8%	16.9%	41.4%	54.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:22+00:00	22.7%	15.9%	14.2%	33.3%	54.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	22.7%	15.9%	14.2%	33.3%	54.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	22.7%	15.9%	19.7%	33.3%	54.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	22.7%	15.9%	19.7%	33.3%	54.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	22.7%	15.9%	19.7%	33.3%	54.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	24.2%	15.9%	19.7%	33.3%	45.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	24.2%	15.9%	19.7%	33.3%	45.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	24.2%	15.9%	19.7%	33.3%	45.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	24.2%	15.9%	19.7%	33.3%	45.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00	24.2%	12.9%	14.1%	39.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	24.2%	12.9%	14.1%	39.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	24.2%	12.9%	14.1%	39.7%	45.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	24.2%	12.9%	14.1%	39.7%	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	45%	86.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	86.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	84.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	83.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	84.9°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 88°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗