KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

22%

20%

12%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.8¢Risks 28.85u

EPSNO 71.2¢Risks 71.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.15u · EPS −71.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:24+00:00	54.4%	8.3%	35.8%	24.2%	52.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	54.4%	8.3%	35.8%	24.2%	52.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	54.4%	8.3%	35.8%	24.2%	52.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	54.4%	8.3%	27.4%	24.2%	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	54.4%	8.3%	27.4%	24.2%	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	54.4%	8.3%	27.4%	24.2%	52.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	36.2%	8.3%	27.4%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	36.2%	8.3%	27.4%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	36.2%	8.3%	27.4%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	36.2%	8.3%	27.4%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	36.2%	8.3%	27.4%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	36.2%	8.3%	22.7%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:55+00:00	36.2%	8.3%	22.7%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	36.2%	8.3%	22.7%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	38.3%	8.3%	22.7%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	38.3%	8.3%	22.7%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	38.3%	8.3%	22.7%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:18+00:00	38.3%	8.3%	22.7%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	38.3%	8.3%	22.7%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	38.3%	8.3%	23.3%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	38.3%	8.3%	23.3%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	38.3%	8.3%	23.3%	10.1%	31.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00	40.5%	8.3%	23.3%	12.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	40.5%	8.3%	23.3%	12.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	40.5%	8.3%	23.3%	12.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	40.5%	8.3%	23.3%	12.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00	40.5%	8.3%	23.3%	12.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	40.5%	8.3%	22.5%	12.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	40.5%	6.9%	22.5%	12.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:27+00:00	40.5%	6.9%	22.5%	12.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	50.8%	6.9%	22.5%	12.3%	20.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	50.8%	6.9%	22.5%	12.3%	20.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	76.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	73.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	71.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	73.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	69.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	72.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗