KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

48%

20%

19%

18%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

ICONNO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.85u · ICON −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	75.1%	45.4%	69.8%	32.9%	6.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	75.1%	33.8%	69.8%	32.9%	6.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:27+00:00	75.1%	33.8%	69.8%	32.9%	6.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	81.0%	33.8%	69.6%	33.1%	6.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	81.0%	33.8%	69.6%	33.1%	6.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:21+00:00	81.0%	32.5%	69.6%	33.1%	6.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	81.0%	32.5%	69.6%	33.1%	6.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	81.0%	32.5%	75.5%	33.1%	6.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	81.0%	32.5%	75.5%	33.1%	6.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	81.0%	32.5%	75.5%	33.1%	6.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	81.0%	32.5%	75.5%	33.1%	6.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	78.0%	32.5%	75.5%	39.5%	66.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	78.0%	32.5%	75.5%	39.5%	66.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	78.0%	32.5%	75.5%	39.5%	66.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	78.0%	32.5%	75.5%	39.5%	66.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	78.0%	32.5%	74.8%	39.5%	66.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	78.0%	32.5%	74.8%	39.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	78.0%	32.5%	74.8%	39.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	72.4%	32.5%	74.8%	39.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	72.4%	32.5%	74.8%	39.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	72.4%	32.5%	74.8%	39.6%	66.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	72.4%	32.5%	74.8%	39.6%	66.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	46.5%	17.4%	37.4%	14.0%	16.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	46.5%	17.4%	45.7%	14.0%	16.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	46.5%	17.4%	45.7%	14.0%	16.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	46.5%	17.4%	45.7%	14.0%	16.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	58.3%	17.4%	45.7%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	58.3%	17.4%	45.7%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	58.3%	17.4%	45.7%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	58.3%	17.4%	45.7%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00	58.3%	17.4%	45.7%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00	58.3%	20.4%	50.0%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	58.3%	20.4%	50.0%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	58.3%	20.4%	50.0%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	50.9%	20.4%	50.0%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	50.9%	20.4%	50.0%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00	50.9%	20.4%	50.0%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	50.9%	20.4%	50.0%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	50.9%	20.4%	50.0%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	50.9%	20.4%	39.4%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	50.9%	20.4%	39.4%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	50.9%	20.4%	39.4%	25.1%	27.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	54.7%	20.4%	39.4%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	54.7%	20.4%	39.4%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	54.7%	20.4%	39.4%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	54.7%	20.4%	39.4%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	54.7%	20.4%	39.4%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	54.7%	20.4%	47.6%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	54.7%	20.4%	47.6%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	54.7%	20.4%	47.6%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	64.6%	20.4%	47.6%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	64.6%	20.4%	47.6%	19.1%	17.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	64.6%	20.4%	47.6%	19.1%	17.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	78.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	76.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	73.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	72.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	72.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗