KTUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.3¢Risks 4.67u

EPSNO 90.6¢Risks 45.32u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.32u · EPS −45.32u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:02:05+00:00	13.7%	1.1%	14.5%	21.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	13.7%	1.1%	14.5%	21.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	13.7%	1.1%	14.5%	21.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	13.7%	1.1%	14.5%	21.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	13.7%	3.1%	9.2%	21.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	13.7%	3.1%	9.2%	21.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	13.7%	3.1%	9.2%	21.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	13.7%	3.1%	9.2%	21.9%	0.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	11.2%	3.1%	9.2%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:21+00:00	11.2%	3.1%	9.2%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:42+00:00	11.2%	2.5%	9.2%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	11.2%	2.5%	9.2%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	11.2%	2.5%	6.6%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	11.2%	2.5%	6.6%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	11.2%	2.5%	6.6%	21.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:03+00:00	10.5%	2.5%	6.6%	48.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	10.5%	2.5%	6.6%	48.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	10.5%	2.5%	6.6%	48.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	10.5%	2.5%	6.6%	48.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	10.5%	2.5%	6.6%	48.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	10.5%	2.5%	12.0%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	10.5%	2.5%	12.0%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	10.5%	2.5%	12.0%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	7.0%	2.5%	12.0%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	7.0%	2.5%	12.0%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:01+00:00	7.0%	2.5%	12.0%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	7.0%	2.5%	12.0%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:48+00:00	7.0%	2.5%	12.0%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	7.0%	2.5%	10.5%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	7.0%	2.5%	10.5%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	7.0%	2.5%	10.5%	48.8%	14.3%
2026-10-19T07:34:10+00:00	5.0%	2.5%	10.5%	18.2%	13.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	5.0%	2.5%	10.5%	18.2%	13.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	5.0%	2.5%	10.5%	18.2%	13.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	5.0%	2.5%	10.5%	18.2%	13.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	5.0%	2.5%	10.5%	18.2%	13.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	5.0%	1.0%	5.2%	18.2%	13.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	5.0%	1.0%	5.2%	18.2%	13.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	5.0%	1.0%	5.2%	18.2%	13.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00	4.3%	1.0%	5.2%	18.2%	13.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	4.3%	1.0%	5.2%	18.1%	12.8%
2026-10-19T15:14:04+00:00	4.3%	1.0%	5.2%	18.1%	12.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	4.3%	1.0%	5.2%	18.1%	12.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	4.3%	1.0%	5.2%	18.1%	12.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	4.3%	1.0%	10.7%	18.1%	12.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	4.3%	1.0%	10.7%	18.1%	12.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	4.3%	1.0%	10.7%	18.1%	12.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	10.7%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	10.7%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	10.7%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	10.7%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:22+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	10.7%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	3.6%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	3.6%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	3.3%	1.0%	3.6%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	3.6%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	3.6%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	3.6%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	3.6%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	3.6%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	2.2%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	2.2%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	2.2%	17.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	3.1%	1.0%	2.2%	17.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	3.1%	1.0%	2.2%	17.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	3.1%	1.0%	2.2%	17.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	3.1%	1.0%	2.2%	17.7%	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	18%	84.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	3%	79.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	81.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	81.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	79.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261025-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 91°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗