— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
58¢
ndfd
53¢
nbm
39¢
hres
35¢
eps
27¢
aifs
8¢
wn2
3¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F12¢
62–63°F19¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F12¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape