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KABQ / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
58%
HRES
35%
EPS
27%
AIFS
8%
WN2
3%
Consensus
22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 30.2¢Risks 30.25u
VS
WN2NO 69.8¢Risks 69.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.75u · WN2 −69.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00ICON: 40.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00ICON: 40.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00ICON: 40.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00ICON: 40.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00ICON: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:009.3%27.1%7.1%38.4%40.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:009.3%27.1%2.5%38.4%40.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:009.3%27.1%2.5%38.4%40.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:009.3%27.1%2.5%38.4%40.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:007.5%27.1%2.5%34.7%58.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:007.5%27.1%2.5%34.7%58.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:007.5%27.1%2.5%34.7%58.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:007.5%27.1%2.5%34.7%58.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:007.5%27.1%2.5%34.7%58.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:007.5%26.6%2.7%34.7%58.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:007.5%26.6%2.7%34.7%58.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:007.5%26.6%2.7%34.7%58.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:008.3%26.6%2.7%34.7%58.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:008.2%26.6%2.7%34.7%57.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON58%69.9°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%69.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend39%67.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES35%65.9°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble27%65.7°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single8%61.0°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%59.5°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗