— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
aifs
46¢
hres
39¢
eps
36¢
wn2
22¢
icon
19¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F3¢
58–59°F7¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F19¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F11¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KABQ-20261027-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape