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KABQ / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
46%
HRES
39%
EPS
36%
WN2
22%
ICON
19%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 32.8¢Risks 32.75u
VS
ICONNO 67.2¢Risks 67.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.25u · ICON −67.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:0046.5%36.3%21.6%39.0%19.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:0046.5%36.3%21.6%39.0%19.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0046.5%36.3%21.6%39.0%19.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0046.5%36.3%21.6%39.0%19.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%66.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single46%65.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES39%63.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble36%64.2°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 222%61.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON19%56.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261027-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗