— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
70¢
ndfd
54¢
aifs
52¢
hres
44¢
icon
44¢
nbm
44¢
eps
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F25¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KATL-20261023-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape