KATL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

52%

45%

44%

44%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.4¢Risks 26.22u

ICONNO 47.6¢Risks 23.78u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.78u · ICON −23.78u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	58.8%	37.4%	76.7%	45.9%	52.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	58.8%	37.4%	76.7%	45.9%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	58.8%	37.4%	75.2%	45.9%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	58.8%	37.4%	75.2%	45.9%	52.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	58.8%	37.4%	75.2%	45.9%	52.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	58.8%	37.4%	75.2%	45.9%	52.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	57.2%	37.4%	75.2%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	57.2%	37.4%	75.2%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	57.2%	37.4%	75.2%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	57.2%	37.4%	75.2%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	57.2%	37.4%	72.8%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	57.2%	37.4%	72.8%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	57.2%	37.4%	72.8%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	52.4%	37.4%	72.8%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	52.4%	37.4%	72.8%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	52.4%	37.4%	72.8%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	52.4%	37.4%	72.8%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00	52.4%	37.4%	72.8%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	52.4%	37.4%	69.5%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	52.4%	37.4%	69.5%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	52.4%	37.4%	69.5%	32.7%	41.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00	51.7%	37.4%	69.5%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	51.7%	37.4%	69.5%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	51.7%	37.4%	69.5%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	51.7%	37.4%	69.5%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	51.7%	37.4%	69.5%	44.4%	44.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	51.7%	45.2%	60.6%	44.4%	44.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	61%	75.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	74.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	74.2°F	2.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	73.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗