— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
wn2
53¢
aifs
48¢
eps
42¢
nbm
33¢
hres
24¢
icon
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F9¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F21¢
72–73°F20¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KATL-20261024-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape