KATL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

48%

36%

24%

22%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

ICONNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.40u · ICON −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	50.0%	19.8%	48.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	50.0%	19.8%	48.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	47.4%	19.8%	48.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	47.4%	19.8%	48.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	47.4%	19.8%	48.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	44.9%	42.4%	47.4%	19.8%	48.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	39.1%	42.4%	47.4%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	39.1%	42.4%	47.4%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	39.1%	42.4%	47.4%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	39.1%	42.4%	47.4%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	39.1%	42.4%	46.6%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	39.1%	42.4%	46.6%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	39.1%	42.4%	46.6%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	44.1%	42.4%	46.6%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	44.1%	42.4%	46.6%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	44.1%	42.4%	46.6%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	44.1%	42.4%	46.6%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00	44.1%	42.4%	46.6%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	44.1%	42.4%	53.4%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	44.1%	42.4%	53.4%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	44.1%	42.4%	53.4%	17.4%	36.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00	47.6%	42.4%	53.4%	23.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	47.6%	42.4%	53.4%	23.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	47.6%	42.4%	53.4%	23.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	47.6%	42.4%	53.4%	23.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	47.6%	42.4%	53.4%	23.9%	21.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	47.6%	36.0%	59.6%	23.9%	21.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	72.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	71.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	68.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	67.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗