daily prop · Austin, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sun Oct 18

Austin high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 75

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 75°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 2¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		85¢
eps		73¢
ndfd		59¢
nbm		59¢
wn2		33¢
hres		30¢
aifs		30¢
icon		12¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-15T04:02:26+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:37:21+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape