KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

33%

30%

30%

12%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.55u · ICON −57.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:26+00:00	24.3%	90.3%	11.3%	39.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:02+00:00	24.3%	90.3%	11.3%	39.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:21+00:00	24.3%	90.3%	14.1%	39.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	24.3%	90.3%	14.1%	39.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	24.3%	90.3%	14.1%	39.7%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:09+00:00	22.1%	90.3%	14.1%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	22.1%	90.3%	14.1%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	22.1%	90.3%	14.1%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	22.1%	90.3%	14.1%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	22.1%	90.3%	8.6%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	22.1%	90.3%	8.6%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	22.1%	90.4%	8.6%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:32+00:00	22.1%	90.4%	8.6%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	25.6%	90.1%	8.6%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	25.6%	90.1%	8.6%	47.3%	27.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	28.6%	87.8%	8.8%	41.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	28.6%	87.8%	12.3%	41.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	28.6%	87.8%	12.3%	41.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	28.6%	87.8%	12.3%	41.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:52+00:00	27.2%	87.8%	12.3%	40.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	27.2%	87.8%	12.3%	40.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	27.2%	87.8%	12.3%	40.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	27.2%	87.8%	12.3%	40.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	27.2%	87.8%	12.3%	40.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	27.2%	86.2%	10.2%	40.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	27.2%	86.2%	10.2%	40.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	27.2%	86.2%	10.2%	40.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	27.2%	86.2%	10.2%	40.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	27.1%	85.7%	10.2%	40.4%	13.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	29.7%	72.7%	9.0%	30.5%	12.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	29.7%	72.7%	32.8%	30.5%	12.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	29.7%	72.7%	32.8%	30.5%	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	29.7%	72.7%	32.8%	30.5%	12.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	29.7%	72.7%	32.8%	30.5%	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	76.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0745
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
WeatherNext 2	33%	73.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.4516
IFS HRES	30%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4830
AIFS Single	30%	72.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.4942
ICON	12%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.7709

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗