daily prop · Austin, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sun Oct 18

Austin high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

settled · observed 75

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 88¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		57¢
nbm		55¢
ndfd		55¢
icon		25¢
hres		20¢
aifs		9¢
wn2		2¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-12T04:01:47+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:37:22+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape