KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

25%

20%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.8¢Risks 29.75u

WN2NO 70.2¢Risks 70.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.25u · WN2 −70.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:47+00:00	30.8%	62.6%	22.7%	90.7%	34.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	30.8%	62.6%	22.7%	90.7%	34.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	30.8%	62.6%	25.9%	90.7%	34.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	30.8%	62.6%	25.9%	90.7%	34.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	30.8%	62.6%	25.9%	90.7%	34.6%
2026-10-12T07:48:48+00:00	16.8%	62.6%	25.9%	92.2%	83.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	16.8%	62.6%	25.9%	92.2%	83.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	16.8%	62.6%	25.9%	92.2%	83.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	16.8%	62.6%	25.9%	92.2%	83.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	16.8%	62.6%	25.9%	92.2%	83.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:38+00:00	16.8%	62.6%	25.5%	92.2%	83.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	16.8%	69.9%	25.5%	92.2%	83.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	16.8%	69.9%	25.5%	92.2%	83.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	16.3%	69.9%	25.5%	92.2%	83.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	16.4%	69.8%	25.6%	92.2%	83.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:00	16.4%	69.8%	25.6%	92.2%	83.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	16.4%	71.4%	25.6%	92.2%	83.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	16.4%	71.4%	17.3%	92.2%	83.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	16.4%	71.4%	17.3%	92.2%	83.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	16.4%	71.4%	17.3%	92.2%	83.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	16.4%	71.4%	17.3%	92.2%	83.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	12.5%	71.4%	17.3%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	12.5%	71.4%	17.3%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	12.5%	71.4%	17.3%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	12.5%	71.4%	17.3%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	12.5%	71.4%	16.2%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	12.5%	71.4%	16.2%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	12.5%	71.4%	16.2%	50.0%	87.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	12.5%	71.4%	16.2%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	13.3%	71.4%	16.2%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	13.3%	71.4%	16.2%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	13.3%	71.4%	16.2%	50.0%	87.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:38+00:00	7.6%	57.3%	2.5%	32.3%	21.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	7.6%	57.3%	2.5%	32.3%	21.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	7.6%	57.3%	2.5%	32.3%	21.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	7.6%	57.3%	1.8%	32.3%	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	7.6%	57.3%	1.8%	32.3%	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	7.6%	57.3%	1.8%	32.3%	21.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	9.2%	57.3%	1.8%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	9.2%	57.3%	1.8%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	9.2%	57.3%	1.8%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	9.2%	57.3%	1.8%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	9.2%	57.3%	1.8%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	9.2%	57.3%	2.2%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:19+00:00	9.2%	57.3%	2.2%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	9.2%	57.3%	2.2%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	8.9%	57.3%	2.2%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	8.9%	57.3%	2.2%	19.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	8.9%	57.3%	2.2%	19.5%	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	57%	78.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.3283
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3003
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
ICON	25%	74.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0645
IFS HRES	20%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0380
AIFS Single	9%	71.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0079
WeatherNext 2	2%	70.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0005

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗