daily prop · Austin, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sun Oct 18

Austin high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

settled · observed 75

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 82°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		54¢
nbm		54¢
eps		46¢
icon		34¢
hres		17¢
aifs		2¢
wn2		1¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:14+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:37:25+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape